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The one picture that reads any trade.
Every trade this desk takes gets posted with the same picture. A line that runs flat, then bends. Today you learn to read it. Once you can, no options trade can hide anything from you.
It's called a payoff diagram and it answers one question. If the market finishes at price X, what do I make or lose?
• Left to right: where SPX finishes at expiration. • Up and down: your profit or loss. • The dotted middle line: zero. Above it you get paid, below it you pay.
Take the simplest trade from yesterday, buying a call. The payoff line is a hockey stick lying on the ice:
BUYING A CALL: FLAT LOSS BELOW THE STRIKE, RISING PROFIT ABOVE THE BREAKEVEN |
Read it left to right. SPX finishes below the strike? The line is flat. You lose the premium, the whole premium, and nothing more. Past the strike the line turns up. Where it crosses zero is your breakeven (strike plus what you paid). Past that, profit climbs.
Three things to find on any payoff diagram, always in this order:
• The floor. Where does the line bottom out? That's the max loss. Flat floor means the risk is defined. It cannot get worse. And if a line falls off the chart with no floor, that trade can too. (We don't trade those. Day 4 is about why.) • The peak. Where's the top? That's max profit, and where it sits tells you what the trade is rooting for. • The crossings. Every spot the line crosses zero is a breakeven. That's the fence between getting paid and paying.
Floor, peak, crossings. Five seconds. That's the whole skill.
Now look at our logo. Flat, rise to a sharp peak, fall, flat. You can read it now. A floor on both sides (defined risk) and one peak in the middle (max profit at one exact price). A trade that wins if SPX finishes near a target, where being wrong costs a known, chosen amount. That's the butterfly. It gets its own day later this week.
Tomorrow: the two scariest words in options, same-day expiration, and why the danger isn't where everybody thinks it is.
Into the close, The Desk
P.S. Next time one of our trade cards goes up, try it. Floor, peak, crossings. You'll know the whole trade before you read a word.
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